2019 AFC Over/Under Win Totals & Prop Bets
Win Total: 7.5
Trease Bet: Over +110
The Buffalo Bills drafted arguably the best defensive lineman in the 2019 NFL Draft in Ed Oliver. He joins an already great defense that was ranked 2nd in total defense last season. They recognized that they needed to be more consistent on the offensive side of the ball to compete in the AFC. They started out by adding offensive linemen such as Mitch Morse from the Chiefs, Cody Ford out of Oklahoma in Round 2 and Ty Nsekhe. These additions will help Josh Allen feel more comfortable in the pocket and be able to make more plays as both a runner and passer. The Bills also knew they needed to get their young QB more weapons on the offense. They added guys such as Cole Beasley (FA), John Brown (FA), TJ Yeldon (FA), Devin Singletary (Draft), Dawson Knox (Draft) and the ageless wonder Frank Gore (FA). This team went 6-10 last year with Nathan Peterman starting games and a rookie QB. With all the additions and knowing the Bills, who with far less talent have won 8+ games three of their last five seasons. I believe the over 7.5 win total is a safe bet.
Win Total: 7
Trease Bet: Under -110
Broncos went a combined 11-21 the previous two seasons under Vance Joseph. They have since moved on from Vance for long time NFL defensive guru Vic Fangio. This is Fangio’s first opportunity as a Head Coach in the NFL and I don’t see a lot of success coming in year one. They have some good core pieces on this roster but overall I don’t believe it is as talented as most in the NFL, specifically in the AFC West. The Chiefs and Chargers are clearly far superior and what the Gruden/Mayock duo are doing with the Raiders, it has pushed the Broncos to the least talented roster in the division. I think this defense will be able to get after the QB and has one of the most under-rated CB in the NFL with Chris Harris Jr. However, that won’t be enough to slow down opposing teams consistently.
Moving over to the offensive side of the ball, the old school mentality of Fangio & Elway is coming out with the belief that Joe Flacco can be what he was during his super bowl run with the Ravens. A lot of people talk down on Lamar Jackson as a QB but know Jackson had a higher YPA, better TD:INT & passer rating than Joe Flacco has had in any of his last 4 seasons. All of that and I have not mentioned the lack of weapons this Broncos team has. Sanders is coming off a season ending injury at age 32 and have un-proven WRs on the rest of this roster.
I am a huge fan of 1st & 2nd round picks Noah Fant & Dalton Risner. I think they will become very good players in this league but history shows Tight Ends do not make a huge difference in their rookie seasons. A good rookie season for tight ends usually looks like a 500 yard and 3 TD type season. Aside from Q. Nelson of the Colts last season, a rookie OL usually doesn’t move the needle for extra wins. Overall, with how difficult the Broncos division is, I don’t see a realistic way this team goes over 7 wins.
Win Total: 8
Trease Bet: Over -110
This team does not have a GM, I think this is going to cause more issues than most would think. Casual fan’s believe the GM only worries about the draft and FA but there are a lot of daily/weekly signings a team needs to complete throughout the season. My main concern with this bet is if the team gets hit with the injury bug like 2017, who is going to take control of getting good players into the facility. This team has won 9 or more game 4 of the past 5 years, 2017 being the year they did not. That season was because they were missing key players for the majority of the season, such as: Watt, Watson, Mercilus to name a few. This team does have a clear weakness at the offensive line. Watson was the most hit QB last season and was constantly running for his life on passing downs, yet they still won 11 games.
The reason I still feel good about this bet is because I believe all the key players will stay healthy as they did for the most part last season. Everyone was talking about the Chiefs in the middle of the season (rightfully so) but most don’t realize the Texans won 9 in a row at one point. If Fuller can stay healthy opposite side of Hopkins, this offense will be top 5 in the NFL. Watson stats are Mahomes type level when he has both of those guys on the field at the same time. Watt came back healthy last year and produced 16 sacks, I am confused on why more people are not talking about him as a DPOY candidate this season. The AFC South is tough but I think the talent on this roster can get them to 9-7.
Andy Dalton Passing Yards
Over: 3,725 yards (-140)
Under: 3,725 yards (+100)
Trease Bet: Under (+100)
My Podcast (Talkin’ Football) co-host Austin Cunningham & I are believers that the Bengals will be better than most anticipate but this may be my favorite player prop bet. Andy Dalton has only thrown over 3,700 yards 2 times in his 8 year career and he has not done it since 2016. All that to go along with AJ Green having ankle surgery that will cause him to miss a few games to start the season. Joe Mixon is becoming the vocal point of this offense, Zac Taylor the new HC for the Bengals comes from the McVay tree. Meaning he will rely a lot on his running back like they do with Gurley in LA.
Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Over: 1,175 yards (-110)
Under: 1,175 yards (-130)
Trease Bet: Under (-130)
I don’t particularly love the -130 odds but I think it may be too good to pass up. Chubb is a very talented RB and I think he will have a very big year. My reasoning for going under are:
1. They did not trade for OBJ and draft Mayfield 1 overall to become a run first offense.
2. Kareem Hunt will take a lot of carries away from him come week 10. I believe it will be a 50/50 split the 2nd half of the season. You don’t see very many RB’s break the 1,100 yard mark when they are not the full-work horse for the entire season. Before the Dog Pound fans come at me, know I believe this is a good thing for your team. Chubb was fantastic later in his Georgia career splitting carries with Michel. This will keep both guys fresh for your December games that will actually be meaningful for the first time in a decade. Having two power backs with fresh legs late in the season may be the difference between 9-7 season and 11-5.